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A Credit Suisse, UBS Merger - For Your Consideration
November 10, 2011
JPMorgan banking analyst Kian Abouhossein offered a solution to the big Swiss Banks, one he suggests that could make for a deal sweeter than Swiss hot chocolate. In his analyst note, Abouhossein proposed a “Swiss Solution,” where Credit Suisse and UBS agree to a joint venture that would merge their investment banks.
Both banks could use a boost in performance. Credit Suisse is laying off thousands - an additional 1,500 job cuts were announced last week, while UBS lost over $2bn in a rogue trading scandal earlier this year, and reported disappointing earnings in the latest quarter.
Details Behind the Recommendation. Abouhossein postures that Credit Suisse has a “better” investment banking business than UBS, one with a stronger American presence. That would mean that UBS would need to pay Credit Suisse a one-time premium “in order to sweeten the deal.” The amount of that premium would be estimated at about $3.5bn.
In terms of net capital, ... while such a payment is large, it nonetheless would be beneficial in that it would create an $11bn net capital release for UBS. Credit Suisse’s estimated net capital release could be a hair over $5bn, according to his model.
In terms of revenues and net costs, ... a joint venture, or merger, could help to reduce costs, earn a higher return on equity, and achieve a “material capital release for shareholders.” All told, the joint venture could bring in $19.9bn in revenue in 2013.
In terms of job redundancies, ... the combined firm could eliminate as many as 13,000 jobs, or 38% of the combined work force. While this point is troubling to an-already shrinking Wall Street, it's a retrenchment that might make sens.
In terms of reducing the disruption on banking operations, ... it might be a relief to both banks, whose banking units have been distracted and negatively impacted by the disappointed results coming out of the investment banking units, as well as the stream of lawsuits - in particular, the confrontations with the IRS.
While the joint venture concept may seem somewhat overwhelming, it had a certain logic to it and a seemingly positive cost-benefit ration. Hey, the industry faces tough times, and we've all seen far worse combinations - did someone just say "BofA and Countrywide?" Bite your tongue. [Dealbook, 11/8/11]

