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Another Year of Fear for Municipal Bonds

February 13, 2012
Those who chose to disregard Meredith Whitney's 'gloom and doom' forecasts for the municipal-bond market - following her December 2010 appearance on "60 Minutes" - and invested in that market, did well.  The S&P Municipal Bond index returned 13.5%. While the muni bond markets is not expected to collapse in 2012, the market is not likely to be as accommodating as it was in 2011.  That's because a tight supply of new munis and the existence of zero interest rates - which force investors to search for yield - have pushed money back into muni funds, where yields also have fallen. Triple-A-rated 10-year bonds now are yielding about 1.8% - or about 3% pre-tax.  That's a full percentage point above Treasurys.  But the greater yield comes at a cost, because munis are less liquid and often suffer from poor disclosure. A wave of outright defaults by municipalities remains unlikely, particularly among G.O. (general-obligation) bonds, which make up about 40% of the market.  But the U.S. recovery is sluggish and, up until now, localities have opted to bear the brunt of strains in local finances - witness falling public-sector payrolls.  However, there's a political limit to just how much sacrifice municipalities can endure.  Sooner or later, issues like unfunded public-sector pension funds will necessarily result in at least occasional defaults.  Headlines like these will not be welcomed, especially since investors are receiving relatively low fixed-income yields.  However, it's good to know such events are not expected to dominate the news. For more details, go to [WSJ, 2/8/12].