... but, for the most part, missed by a foot. Two computer models analyzed a season's worth of statistics and predicted the winners of Sunday's AFC and NFC Championship games.  By and large, they were losers. Objective Models that Participated. Yale economist Cade Massey and Las Vegas sports analyst Rufus Peabody, created the Massey-Peabody ranking system, which projects a team's performance based on how it would fare against an average team on a neutral field.  It also assigns a slight edge to the home team.  Ben Alamar, editor of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, uses a predictive model that estimates how teams perform on nearly every possible play. Both models think more of Baltimore and San Francisco than Las Vegas seems to, which figures.  Vegas point spreads - which are set with the public's tendencies in mind - often tend to favor teams with high-powered offenses over defensive teams.  The Patriots and Giants fall into the former category, the Ravens and 49ers the latter. Baltimore Ravens vs. N.E. Patriots. Both models believed that the game would be closer than Las Vegas oddmakers expect, and both concurred that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick would be in for a tougher time than expected.  Correct.

• Massey-Peabody favored the Patriots by 5.54-points over the Ravens.  FYI, this model had the Patriots as its No. 2-ranked team overall  - just ahead of the knocked-out N.O. Saints).   A Winner.
• Alamar's system actually had Baltimore pulling off the upset over the seemingly red-hot Patriots in Foxborough, 21-20.  And it might have happened, except for a dropped TD pass and wayward 32-yard FG attempt.  A Loser.

  San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants. In the night-cap, the NFC Championship, Las Vegas favored the 49ers by just 2-1/2 points.  The computer models both thought the 49ers were being seriously undervalued. Both statistical models projected the 49ers to handily take care of the Giants.

• Massey-Peabody ranked the Giants as just the 14th-best team in the NFL, trailing several non-playoff teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets.  That was a large factor in picking the 49ers as 6.37 point favorites.  A Loser.
• Alamar System predicted an even larger spread, and expected a 24-14 San Francisco victory.  A Loser.

Conclusion.   Stick to your gut instincts.  Let's go Big Blue.  (Sorry about that.) [WSJournal, 1/21/12]