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Citi Can Score a $9B Payday

March 27, 2012
[ by Melanie Gretchen ] Citigroup's 49% holding of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney has a new number attached it, according to an estimate by Deutsche Bank as Morgan Stanley prepares to increase its current 51% stake in the retail brokerage.  Whether Morgan Stanley buys another 14% or all of MSSB, by the Fed's clearance, the transaction would Morgan Stanley's earnings by 4-12%, based on Deutsche Bank’s 2013 EPS estimate. What Citigroup's Stake is Worth. The amount Morgan Stanley may pay to buy Citi out of the joint venture may total between $9 billion and $11 billion, according to Deutsche Bank.  Going forward, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup may accelerate plans for Morgan Stanley to buy Citi out of the joint venture, Dow Jones reported last week. Possible Outcome. Morgan Stanley acquiring more could reduce its ok value 3-15% and lower its Tier 1 common ratio 0.25-0.75 percentage point under Basel III, depending on the stake size and price paid.  Citi's unloading of MSSB would cut annual earnings $550 million while boosting Tier 1 some 0.85 point, Deutsche Bank said. For further details, go to [WSJ, 3/26/12].