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Deutsche Bank’s Public Woes - Time For Creative Thinking

October 10, 2016

Deutsche Bank is faced with a collapsing share price, a capital shortfall and a potential $14 billion fine from U.S. regulators.  So it seems like a good time for some creative solutions – like raising funds from the cash rich companies that make up the DAX stock market index.  

 

Those German companies had $80 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the last financial year - excluding financial companies and carmakers.  A big chunk of this corporate liquidity is no doubt on deposit at Deutsche Bank.  If they decided freely to help Deutsche, it would relieve Berlin of a politically toxic situation ahead of federal elections in 2017. A private, nontaxpayer solution might also protect Germany from taking the highly embarrassing step of flouting European Union laws that make it hard for governments to bail out banks until creditors have taken losses first.

 

More surprisingly, it might not be totally bad for German companies. First, the survival of Deutsche Bank is a useful counterbalance in a global capital market dominated by American banks. It could even be argued that at 0.25 times book value, a Deutsche Bank that does not collapse would enable an investor to double its money or more.