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Facebook IPO This Week - M. Stanley, Likely Lead Underwriter

January 30, 2012

[ by Melanie Gretchen ]

Facebook is probably going public this week, in what could be one of the biggest debuts for a U.S. company.  The deal could rake in as much as $10 billion and value the social network between $75 billion and $100 billion.

Morgan Stanley reportedly has made it all the way to the top of the list and will likely lead the deal.  While underwriting fees will be relatively small in this offering, there are many other advantages as the lead underwriter - including potential new business and bragging rights. Only last year it was presumed that rival Goldman Sachs would lead the IPO.  And, even if Morgan Stanley does, in fact, finish on top, there still could be a significant role for Goldman.  Last year was also an excellent year for underwriting at Morgan Stanley, which won the title of the top Internet stock underwriter, after leading the IPOs of LinkedIn, Groupon, and Zynca. When to File - now, in a few weeks, in a few months. Facebook could file with the SEC as early as Wednesday, one person familiar with the matter said.  Alternately, the website could file a few weeks later.  Other people familiar with the matter have said the company is looking at filing an IPO between April and June. In the past, Mr. Zuckerberg has hesitated to file an IPO for the potential damage to the company's culture, people familiar with his thinking said, directing focus toward the quality of Facebook's product rather than its stock price.  However, he probably no longer controls his options because the projected number of Facebook shareholders could exceed 500 by the end of 2011 - at which point the company would lose it exemption and be required to start publicly reporting financial information. Where Facebook would stand. Its final valuation will be determined by factors including investor demand for social media, the IPO market and the health of the European economy.  Thus far, Facebook has increased its worldwide advertising revenue from $738 million in 2009 to $3.8 billion in 2011, according to eMarketer. An offering of $10 billion would rank Facebook 4th among IPOs for U.S. companies - behind Visa, GM and AT&T Wireless, according to Dealogic.  Facebook also would rank as the biggest U.S. Internet offering - a distinction currently held by Google, which raised $1.9 billion in 2004 that set a $23 billion valuation for the company. If valued at $100 billion, Facebook, in an instant, would be worth as much as McDonald's and nearly half as much as Google. [WSJ, 1/28/12]