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Mike Mayo Predicts Dark Days for JPMorgan

May 7, 2012
[ by Melanie Gretchen ] Wall Street analyst Mike Mayo, with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets' U.S. broker-dealer, Calyon Securities, cast a critical eye toward JPMorgan's future prospects - he downgraded the nation's largest bank 2 notches, to underperform from outperform.  Despite JPM's recent wins, Mr. Mayo says the bank's share value could be more than the sum of the company’s parts after its surge this year.
  • Alluding to Friday's weak jobs report, he said: “If the economy stalls, we believe that consumer loans will continue to be a drag on JPMorgan’s performance,” based on the fact that consumer loans make up 60% of its balance-sheet credit exposure.
  • Acknowledging that JPM is "best-in-class among conglomerates," Mayo says the bank isn’t the “best-in-class” in all of its individual businesses.  Considering the unstable financial and political outlook for the U.S., he recommends investors “mix and match a little more aggressively and stay more nimble.”
That said, Mr. Mayo's negative view of JPMorgan’s shares is definitely not the consensus - with most continuing to rate the stock as "outperform." For his money, Mr. Mayo would pass on buying JPMorgan stock, and instead buy several companies that are similar to its individual parts - e.g., State Street for processing, PNC for banking, and Goldman Sachs for brokerage.   [WSJ, 5/4/12].