[ Larry Goldfarb ]

The presidential election is next Tuesday and the last piece of economic data came out this morning, the monthly jobs report.  It showed that the unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, despite the addition of 171,000 new jobs.  Of course, most if not all of these jobs are in the private sector as the government is shedding jobs due to municipality and state belt tightening. 

Pundits note that if President Obama were to win the election, he would represent the only President to gain re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.4% since FDR and the great depression.  The analysts fail to mention that our recent financial crisis is the greatest economic downturn since the great depression. But all seem to agree that the current jobs number, given that they provide a little for both sides, (e.g. a higher unemployment rate, but a robust new jobs number) should not significantly sway the electorate. 

What is becoming clear is that Hurricane Sandy may be the unwitting October surprise.  President Obama has seemed extremely competent in handling the disaster.  A number of facts falling in his favor:

• He is being supported by extremely capable state governments in the states impacted
• President Obama got a wonderful photo opportunity with the Republican Keynote speaker from the Convention, Chris Christie.  Christie was absolutely effusive with praise for Obama which has seemed to resonate. 
• Mayor Bloomberg endorsed Obama, after saying he wouldn’t endorse a candidate.  He implied it was Obama’s competence and his willing to tackle what many believe is the cause of these annual 100 year storms, global warming.

[ Bloomberg, 11/2/12 ]