[ by Melanie Gretchen and Howard Haykin ]

As UBS reportedly negotiates with American and British authorities, the one question on everyone's mind is:  Will the Swiss bank agree to pay something in the range of $450 million to settle alleged libor manipulation charges?  Barclays,the first bank to settle with regulators - specifically, the U.S. CFTC and the U.K. FSA - agreed to pay $453 million.  After the settlement was announced in June 2012, the fallout that followed was nothing short of extraordinary - as it resulted in the termination of Barclays CEO Robert Diamond and other high ranking bank officials. 

The depth and breadth of allegations against UBS are not known - in either absolute terms or in comparison to the allegations against Barclays.  Until that information is revealed, any prediction of a settlement figure pure conjecture.  It's also not known whether the U.S. Department of Justice is taking an aggressive approach to negotiations, and how their strategy might compare to the U.S. CFTC, which handled the Barclays invsetigation. 

Next Settlements Anticipated.   It's almost certain that, over the next 2-3 months, at least 5 libor manipulation settlements involving global banks will be announced.  And each will not be met with the same level of "shock and awe" that erupted when the Barclays deal was announced.  Most everyone in developed nations has read or heard about the extensive nature of these investigations, and the media has reported on various stages of bank negotiations. 

The likely beneficiaries of this advance publicity are numerous CEOs and other officials of those banks that will now enter into settlements.  While the amount of fines are likely to remain high, because regulators are rarely in such a strong negotiating position, and it almost would be "criminal" for them to pass up any potential windfall.  But given the dulled level of anticipation among bank directors and bank shareholders, it's unlikely the fallout against banking officials will be as strong as that which confronted Barclays officials - for better or for worse. 

Banks In the Settlement Pipeline.    To date, the fallout at UBS seemingly has been limited to the suspension of some traders.  Obviously, greater consequences are looming.  In addition, these bank rivals have been mentioned as being investigated or as being at some stage in the settlement negotiation process:

• RBS will disclose penalties before the British bank releases its earnings in February
• Deutsche Bank has set aside money to cover potential fines
• Canadian, Swiss, and Asian regulators are investigating UBS, among more than a dozen banks
• The CFTC is looking into the possibility of wrongdoing at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase
• HSBC has fallen under regulator scrutiny

"The evidence that comes out of any future settlement is likely to be enormously helpful for our claims." -- David Kovel, a partner at the law firm Kirby McInerney who is representing clients in a potential class-action suit related to Libor.

[C-I Note: As civil and criminal cases build up around the world, the banking industry may find itself under siege.  And if American and British regulators can get the same bank, what's to stop every country in which it operates to get its share in criminal and civil court?  To date, some of the prosecutorial efforts have been joint, as the CFTC and the FSA did in the case of Barclays;  is that increasing or decreasing the amount the firms may have to pay?  How far will regulators go?  Which unit/individual/bank will be subject to which rule and charged what fine?]