CNBC's John Carney, referring to a report in the WSJounral, says it looks like it's going to be an ugly bonus season on Wall Street.  Huh? What?  Just a couple of months ago, weren't we reading that Wall Street firms were socking away cash reserves at such a pace that some (many?) were predicting that 2010 bonuses would rival past record years?  That included a report that Morgan Stanley would be paying out a full 62% of its net revenues on compensation - way in excess of its peers that expect to pay in the range of 40-50%. 

Anyway, Mr. Carney then referred to the latest breakdown from the WSJournal's Robert Frank:

    While pay may increase slightly in the broader financial-services world - including retail banks, hedge funds and private-equity firms - bonuses at the core Wall Street firms are likely to take a double-digit hit, analysts and pay consultants say.  On Monday, NYSE member firms that conduct business with the public reported 3rd-quarter after-tax profits of $4.7 billion, down from $8.7 billion in the 3rd-quarter of 2009.

    Wall Street bonuses are likely to be down 22% to 28% this year, according to Options Group, an executive-search and consulting firm.  The drop follows last year's much-criticized surge in banker pay and highlights growing uncertainty on Wall Street ahead of regulatory scrutiny and weak financial markets.

    Bankers at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America's Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase say they are being told bonus pools are likely to be down between 10% to 25%.  Some divisions, like proprietary trading, could be down as much as 50%. 

    Exact bonus amounts won't be known for another month or two, since most banks pay out bonuses early in the new year.  Yet senior bankers who have seen bonus-pool estimates say many employees are likely to be disappointed.

    One Citi banker said colleagues who have been coming out of compensation meetings in the past two weeks "look like they've been hit by a truck."   [CNBC's NetNet, 12/14]