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Wall Street Faces Dismal Q4
January 9, 2012
[ by Melanie Gretchen ]
Friday the 13th [how appropriate] kicks off the Wall Street hunting season. And first out of the box to report fourth quarter earnings will be JPMorgan Chase. The numbers for JPMorgan are not expected to be pretty - then again, analysts expect lower earnings across the board, including those of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Bank of America.
Results will be down largely because of recent weakness in the economy and growing concerns for the European debt crisis. These have beaten down performance in the financial sector, and scared many would-be investors away from the market. Results will also be hurt by expected accounting losses that banks are expected to take when they mark-to-the-market their own debt. In Q3 of 2012, the quarterly adjustment raised bank earnings.
The lower earnings are expected to cause Wall Street employee bonuses to fall by as much as 30%, according to compensation experts, which means that New York, Wall Street's host state, will have an off-year, as well.
Crédit Agricole analyst Michael Mayo attributed the industry's downshifting in 2011 to having grown too fast over the past 2 decades: "It’s likely 2011 will be the worst year for revenue growth for the banks since 1938, and so far 2012 isn’t feeling much better."
[Dealbook, 1/6/12]
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