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Big Banks

Big Bank Share Prices to Sag in 2017

April 10, 2017

[Photo: CNN Money]


In an interview with NBC, noted Wall Street analyst Dick Bove of Rafferty Capital expressed a bearish attitude about the prospects of bank shares. Looking at hard data, he said, it's clear that the banking industry is doing poorly - to such an extent that it will more than outstrip any benefits that may be derived from the anticipated increase in interest rates.


Bove counters the increasing talk about dergulation, with the statement that the Trump Administration is actually "increasing, increasing, increasing regulation in the banking industry." That includes a new accounting rules that will be in effect as of year's end - and will fully actuate in 2020 - which will have the actual effect of knocking down areas of the industry by 20%.


WHAT IS THAT ACCOUNTING RULE?    Last June, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued a new accounting rule that will require U.S. banks to book losses on soured loans much faster and, in turn, force them to set aside more in reserves.


Banks will have to record all losses they project over the lifetime of their loans as soon as the loans are made. That is a change from current practice, under which banks wait to record loan losses until there is evidence a loss is likely to occur. The rule goes into effect in 2020 for publicly traded banks, and in 2021 for privately-held ones.